Early Warning Networks: Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Banking Supervision and Systemic Risk Assessment

Early Warning Networks: Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Banking Supervision and Systemic Risk Assessment

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Early Warning Networks: Temporal Graph Neural Networks for Banking Supervision and Systemic Risk Assessment

Despite decades of regulatory advances, banking crises persist, perhaps because traditional supervision relies on backward-looking metrics that frequently overlook emerging risks until institutions are already in distress. This fundamental timing failure can turn manageable risks into systemic disasters.

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